Ecosystem services – the benefits that natural ecosystems provide to people – influence a range of human activities in North and South Carolina. Anglers flock to beaches, search out trout streams, and charter boats to find the best fishing. Avid birdwatchers seek out scenic places with abundant bird communities. Wetlands provide protection to cities and homes vulnerable to flooding and wind damage from storms. How will the provision of these ecosystem services be affected by climate change and continued shifts in land use in our rapidly developing region?

In order for an ecosystem service to be provided, there must be both a supply of the relevant ecosystem product or process and a demand for that product or process. For example, abundant trout in a mountain stream do not contribute to recreational fishing if the stream is hundreds of miles from anyone interested in fishing. Both the supply of and demand for many ecosystem services are likely to be affected by changes in climate and land use, resulting in shifts in ecosystem service provision.

This ongoing project uses spatial mapping of the supply and demand for a variety of ecosystem services in the Carolinas to understand the current distribution of ecosystem services and how future climate and land-use changes may cause changes in ecosystem service provision. To illustrate this approach, we will discuss native pollination of pollinator-dependent crops, human populations relative to popular locations for recreational birding, and the vulnerability of people and property to flooding.

The Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool for Coastal Habitats (CCVATCH) was created within the National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR) System to help land managers, decision makers, and researchers develop conservation, management, and restoration plans that consider the effects of climate change. CCVATCH is an evaluation process that helps to identify sources of vulnerability, provides a greater understanding of the potential impacts of climate change alone and in relation to existing non-climate stressors, and identifies data gaps and research needs. The CCVATCH was recently used to assess four intertidal marsh habitats at the North Carolina NERR and to compare the North Inlet- Winyah Bay NERR intertidal marsh and the Murrells Inlet marsh in South Carolina. All six sites were determined to have moderate to high levels of overall climate vulnerability in 30 years, although the main causes of vulnerability varied. The direct effects of sea level rise were considered to be the main sources of vulnerability for the South Carolina marshes, but the potential effects of temperature on invasive species and the potential effects of precipitation and sea level rise on erosion may also increase vulnerability at these sites. An increase in the intensity of extreme climate events (e.g., tropical storms) would directly increase the vulnerability of marshes in North Carolina, and storms may also interact with current stressors of invasive species and erosion to increase vulnerability. This assessment process shows that sources of climate vulnerability may be highly site specific, and management plans should take into account how current ecosystem stressors, such as invasive species and erosion, may be exacerbated by the changing climate. This presentation will demonstrate how the CCVATCH can be used to evaluate habitats for sources of climate vulnerability and potential management actions to increase resilience.

Trout are a culturally and economically important group of species on the Qualla Boundary. As trout are coldwater fishes, and the Qualla Boundary is located near the Southern limit of trout distribution, trout there are expected to be highly sensitive to climate warming. In this study, I modeled how the distribution and total area of native brook trout habitat will change under the four RCP greenhouse gas emissions scenarios from the IPCC AR5. I found that the majority of habitat loss will occur within the next 10-25 years and that habitat loss in 50 years will be between 50% in the "best case" scenario and 92% in the "worst case" scenario. I will also discuss models of the impact of climate warming on production in the tribal hatchery. Preliminary model outputs suggest that higher summer temperatures will reduce fish growth during that period, leading to longer times to grow fish to stocking size and greater feed costs as fish will require higher rates of feeding for longer periods of time.